Nigeria’s AI Governance Tightrope & the Need for a Coherent Roadmap

Africa’s digital economy which is valued at $180 billion is projected to reach $712 billion by 2030– World Bank. Nigeria’s digital economy is valued at $11.8 billion and projected to reach $27 billion by 2030 – Mordor Intelligence. AI adoption in Nigeria is nascent but growing and 72% of Nigerian CEOs expect AI to transform workforce and skills strategies– PwC Nigeria 2024. Nigeria is ranked 72nd out of 195 countries in AI readiness globally – Oxford Government AI Readiness Index 2025. AI is targeted to add $15 billion to Nigeria’s GDP by 2030. Nigeria is the first country in Africa to institutionalize a National Centre for AI and Robotics (NCAIR) in 2020. Nigeria’s National AI Strategy was launched in 2025– NITDA

Introduction

AI is no longer an abstract technological frontier. Its applications, from credit scoring to health diagnostics and public service delivery, are increasingly tangible in emerging economies and Nigeria exemplifies this dynamic. The National Centre for AI and Robotics (NCAIR), established in 2020, and the National AI Strategy, launched in 2025, mark deliberate steps toward institutionalizing AI governance in Africa. However, translating these milestones into operational, enforceable frameworks in Nigeria remain a critical challenge. This blog highlights why for Nigeria, AI adoption risks uneven implementation, fragmented enforcement and economic displacement if governance is not strengthened. The blog concludes with recommendations to consolidate AI governance frameworks with guidance from the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA), and other sectoral authorities synthesized into a coherent national AI roadmap, adopt clear roles and responsibilities to reduce duplication and enable enforceable ethical standards, strengthen institutional capacity, prioritize data governance, among others.

Globally, AI governance combines principles of transparency, fairness, accountability, and safety. Countries such as the United Kingdom and Singapore have implemented regulatory sandboxes, ethics boards, and sectoral oversight mechanisms. In Nigeria, AI ethical guidance exists across NITDA, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and other sectoral regulatory authorities, but enforcement remains fragmented. As a result, AI adoption risks uneven implementation, unintended bias (AI systems learn from data, and if that data reflects historical or societal biases, then AI can perpetuate or even amplify those biases, leading to discriminatory outcomes in areas like hiring, lending, or healthcare), and economic displacement (automation driven by AI could lead to job losses in certain sectors as machines replace human workers, potentially resulting in social dislocation and increased inequality if not managed with proactive policies like retraining programs) if governance is not strengthened.

Institutional and Regulatory Challenges

AI oversight in Nigeria is complicated due largely to the system of governance. For instance, NITDA establishes national technology standards, CBN regulates the financial-sector’s AI applications, and the National Health ICT Framework provides guidance for health-sector AI. All these overlapping mandates create regulatory uncertainty and can slow innovation. Comparative evidence from Kenya and Rwanda, where clearly delineated AI roles and sectoral sandboxes have been implemented, demonstrates that coherent institutional design accelerates adoption while reducing ethical breaches.

Also, data governance remains a persistent challenge because AI requires large, high-quality datasets and Nigeria’s public-sector data is fragmented and sometimes inaccessible due to privacy or security concerns. Without enforceable standards for data quality, consent, and provenance, AI applications risk entrenching inequities rather than generating economic opportunity. The 2025 Oxford Government AI Readiness Index ranks Nigeria 72nd out of 195 globally, highlighting both the potential and the structural gaps in institutional and technical capacity.

Fiscal realities shape the scope and pace of AI adoption in Nigeria because of the need to balance investment in AI infrastructure, research capacity, and skills development with competing priorities such as security, energy, healthcare, and education. According to a 2024 survey by the PwC, AI adoption in Nigeria is nascent but growing and 72% of Nigerian CEOs expect AI to transform workforce and skills strategies. Also, the National AI Strategy projects that AI could contribute $15 billion to GDP by 2030, reflecting both opportunity and urgency. Yet realizing this potential requires deliberate sequencing of capacity-building, regulatory clarity, and private-sector engagement.

Regional and Multilateral Dimensions

Nigeria’s AI trajectory is embedded within continental and global frameworks. The African Union’s Digital Transformation Strategy, ECOWAS policy harmonization initiatives, and technical support from the African Development Bank provide normative and practical guidance. At the same time, international benchmarks, including OECD recommendations and World Bank technical assistance, shape expectations for ethical deployment. Effective AI governance in Nigeria therefore entails adapting these global norms to local political economy realities, administrative capacities, and social priorities.

Recommendations

1. Consolidate AI governance frameworks. Guidance from NITDA, CBN, and other sectoral authorities should be synthesized into a coherent national roadmap. Clear roles and responsibilities will reduce duplication and enable enforceable ethical standards.

2. Strengthen institutional capacity. Regulatory agencies need technical expertise, enforcement authority, and mechanisms for cross-sector coordination. Ethics committees, sectoral sandboxes, and citizen engagement channels should be operationalized to ensure accountability.

3. Prioritize data governance and ethical standards. Nigeria must implement enforceable policies for data quality, privacy, and consent. AI pilots should be monitored with measurable impact indicators, allowing adaptation and risk mitigation.

4. Leverage regional and multilateral support pragmatically. Best practices from African peers should be adopted while aligning international assistance with domestic priorities. Engagement with AU, AfDB, and ECOWAS should focus on capacity-building, regulatory alignment, and technical support that reflects Nigeria’s economic and institutional contexts.

Conclusion

Nigeria, like other emerging economies face a delicate policy balance. AI offers transformative potential for economic growth, effective public service delivery, and workforce development, yet there are risks due to governance, ethics, and institutional capacity. The challenge is not a lack of policy frameworks but the coordinated implementation of robust, enforceable, context-specific measures. Achieving this requires coordination across agencies, strategic sequencing, and careful adaptation of regional and global guidance. Only then can AI contribute meaningfully to inclusive growth without exacerbating inequality or eroding public trust.

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Author's Bio

Henry Akwuebu is a governance and public policy professional with experience working with governments, development institutions and partners on complex development and humanitarian challenges in Africa. He is also one of the pioneer members of the Africa Public Policy and Governance Network (APPGN).