Climate-induced Migration and the Sahel Region’s economic future

The Sahel region stands at the crossroad of environmental vulnerability and political fragility, making it one of the most climate-impacted zones in the world.  For millions across the region, climate shocks have made migration a necessity, not a choice. Climate change-related events in the Sahel, such as drought, floods, and extreme temperatures are displacing populations internally and across borders.  According to recent estimates, over 3.7 million people have been internally displaced, and more than half a million refugees and asylum seekers have sought refuge in neighboring countries. This mobility, once viewed purely through a humanitarian lens, now sits at the heart of Africa’s economic and policy discourse with countries like Mauritania feeling the spillover effects, and coastal West African states such as Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Togo at growing risks of facing secondary impacts. [1]

This blog examines what climate-induced migration is, how climate-induced migration is redrawing markets, shifting labor dynamics, increasing conflict and violence and exposing the fragile fault lines of governance in the Sahel region. In the face of these, the blog identifies seeds of opportunity that this phenomenon presents to the Sahel region. The blog concludes that if the region can meet migration with preparation rather than panic, the Sahel story can become one of renewal of people, adaptation, and of shared prosperity.

Climate-induced Migration

Climate-induced migration refers to the movement of individuals or communities forced to leave their homes due to environmental changes driven or intensified by climate change. These changes include sudden-onset disasters like floods, hurricanes, and wildfires, as well as slow-onset effects such as desertification, sea-levels rise, prolonged droughts, and other extreme weather events. This can include temporary and permanent, seasonal and singular, as well as voluntary and forced movement.[2]

Climate-induced Migration Effects

Displacement effect

The Sahel is emerging as a global epicenter of climate-driven migration.  According to the World Bank’s 2021 Groundswell Part II report, by 2050 up to 86 million people in Sub Saharan Africa could be internally displaced by climate-related events, with the Sahel projected to be among the hardest-hit regions.[3] This is largely due to the region’s heavy dependence on rain-fed agriculture and limited adaptive capacity, which makes it extremely susceptible to flood and land degradation.

Market and economic effect

More than 90% of livelihoods depends on rain-fed agriculture and pastoralism, particularly in areas affected by insecurity. Water scarcity and land degradation affect 80% of the population living in arid or semi-arid areas. According to Alliance Sahel, most climate scenarios indicate that temperatures in the Sahel will rise by at least 2 ° C between 2021 and 2040, which is 1.5 times higher than the global average.[4] Climate-induced migration in the Sahel is expected to have significant economic repercussions for the Sahelian countries such as loss of GDP, lower agriculture yields, and reduced labor productivity as rainfall has become erratic.

The collapse of agricultural and pastoral systems is also driving widespread food insecurity, income loss, and rising poverty. In Niger, for instance, erratic rainfall has led to declining cereal yields and widespread food insecurity. This loss of productivity means families earn less, food prices soar, and hunger spreads. The agricultural collapse is not just a rural crisis, it spills over into national economies, undercutting GDP, increasing import dependency, and deepening poverty.

Conflict and violence

One of the most visible indicators of climate stress is the shrinking of Lake Chad, which has lost over 90% of its surface since 1960s due increased irrigation and climate variability, devastating local livelihoods dependent on fishing and farming.[5] As a result, people living in the Lake Chad Basin are forced to migrate in search of viable livelihoods, often settling in overburdened urban peripheries. In the Lac region, displaced populations and host communities often compete over scarce land and water, leading to growing tensions between host communities and migrants. These disputes are often with ethnic and economic grievances, contributing to instability and even intercommunal violence. Without serious investments in climate adaptation and resource governance, these trends are poised to worsen.

Pastoralism, once a bedrock of resilience in the Sahel, is now under existential threat. Nomadic and semi-nomadic herders face shrinking grazing land and access to water, pushing them to migrate longer distances into farming communities already struggling with land pressures. This has fueled deadly conflicts in Mali and Burkina Faso, destabilizing regions and cutting off vital livestock trade routes. In Mali, the cycles of farmer-herder violence and reprisal have become increasingly lethal since 2015, resulting in nearly 700 fatalities in 2020.[6] These conflicts not only disrupt trade routes and livestock markets, but also increase insecurity in areas already affected by insurgency and state fragility.

Climate, Conflict, and Institutional Fragility

Environmental pressures, displacement, market effects and violence and conflict in the Sahel are compounded by weak governance, characterized by poor resources management, limited public service delivery, corruption, and lack of coordinated climate adaptation policies. In many Sahelian countries, institutions are unable to effectively respond to crises or implement long-term resilience strategies, often leaving local populations vulnerable and deepening mistrust between communities and the state. The absence of effective resilience strategies and policies exacerbates tensions among farmers, herders, and displaced populations, heightening the risk of conflict and insecurity.

It is important to know that urban areas are also facing these pressures. As climate change erodes rural livelihoods, millions are fleeing to urban areas, adding pressure to major cities. But with already strained infrastructure, these urban centers are unable to absorb the influx. Most migrants end up in informal settlements, relying on low-income jobs to survive. The strain on public finances is extensive.  

Opportunities: Rethinking the Sahel’s Economic Future

The Sahel’s economic future must be reimagined not solely through the lens of crisis, but through one of transformation and resilience. While the economic costs of climate change and migration are real and growing, there is an urgent need to:

• Shift the narrative: The narrative should change from seeing climate mobility as a burden to recognizing it as a catalyst for innovation and regional integration. Migrants bring with them skills, and networks that can reshape labor markets, revive local economies, and create transnational trade opportunities.

  
  

• Adopt mobility-sensitive development models: Cities absorbing displaced populations can become hubs of renewable energy innovation, digital entrepreneurship, and climate-smart agriculture, if properly supported. To realize this potential, Sahelian governments and international partners must adopt mobility-sensitive development models that leverage migration as an adaptive strategy. This includes supporting mobile livelihoods like pastoralism through access to grazing corridors, decentralizing services to secondary cities to reduce urban pressure, investing in skills development for displaced youth, and leveraging technology and AI to anticipate mobility trends. The Sahel region has the potential for climate-resilient growth, but only if economic planning moves beyond static, land-based models and embraces the movement of people as part of the region’s economic potential.  The Sahel’s economic future will be shaped not only by those who remain, but by those who are on the move.

  
  

• Make the right investments: Governments in Sahel countries must provide resources in climate-conflict zones, manage mass displacements, and provide long-term investment in climate adaptation and education. With the right investments in vocational training and small business financing, governments in the region can harness this growing labor force as a demographic dividend rather a burden.

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References

1. USA for UNHCR. (n.d.). Sahel refugee crisis. https://www.unrefugees.org/emergencies/sahel-crisis/

2. Wilkinson, E., Kirbyshire, A., Mayhew,L., Batra, P., & Milan, A (2016, October). Climate-induced migration and displacement: closing the policy gap. International Organization for Migration. https://environmentalmigration.iom.int/sites/g/files/tmzbdl1411/files/documents/2023-11/10996.pdf

3. The World Bank. (2021, September 13). Climate Change Could Force 2016 million People to Migrate Within Their Own Countries by 2050 [Press release]. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2021/09/13/climate-change-could-force-216-million-people-to-migrate-within-their-own-countries-by-2050

4. Alliance Sahel. (2024, July 3). Sahel Alliance Members’ Priority: Resilience to Shocks Through Food Security. https://www.alliance-sahel.org/en/news/agriculture-rural-development-and-food-security/priority-food-security/

5. European Space Agency. (2019, March 22). Lake Chad’s shrinking waters. https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2019/03/Lake_Chad_s_shrinking_waters

6. Brottem, L. (2021, July 12). The Growing Complexity of Farmer-Herder Conflict in West and Central Africa (Africa Security Brief No. 39). Africa Center for Strategic Studies. https://africacenter.org/publication/growing-complexity-farmer-herder-conflict-west-central-africa/

Author's bio

Rachel Joy Yeboah Boakye is a passionate advocate for African governance and development with a research background in peace-building, migration, democracy, climate change, and youth movements in West Africa and the Sahel region. She has worked at government and intergovernmental organizations across the United States including United States Institute of Peace, U.S. Department of State, and National Association of Counties. She holds a Master of Arts degree in International Affairs with a concentration in Global Governance, Politics, and Security, and is currently enrolled for a PhD in Politics at York University.